Ron Mgrublian

Positive Tenant Demand Ends 11-Quarter Contraction 

Orange County’s industrial market showed clear signs of stabilization in the fourth quarter of 2025, posting its first positive net absorption in nearly three years and officially ending the county’s longest contraction on record. 

Key Highlights – Q4 2025 

• Net Absorption: +316,406 SF (first positive quarter since Q4 2022)
• Full-Year Net Absorption: –1.8 million SF
• Vacancy Rate: 6.30% (up from 5.20% one year ago, but still below the national average of 7.6%)
• Average NNN Asking Rate: $18.36 PSF
• Average Sale Price: $318 PSF
• Cap Rate: 5.88%
• Space Under Construction: 1.59 million SF
• Total Inventory: 304.2 million SF

After 11 consecutive quarters of negative absorption totaling 9.3 million SF (3.4% of total inventory), positive tenant demand finally returned in Q4. While vacancy has risen from a record-low 1.8% to 6.3%, Orange County remains one of the nation’s strongest and most sought-after industrial markets thanks to its proximity to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and dense Southern California consumer base.

 Market Indicators Trend (2025) 

 Notable Transactions Q4 2025

Top Sales 

• 2164 N. Batavia Street, Orange – 249,431 SF sold for $69.6M ($279 PSF) – Class A
• 17352 Armstrong Avenue, Irvine – 123,748 SF sold for $17M ($137 PSF) – Class C
• 2601 S. Garnsey Street, Santa Ana – 122,407 SF sold for $31.8M ($260 PSF) – Class C

 Top Leases 

• 2164 N. Batavia Street, Orange – 246,732 SF to Paper Mart (Packaging Wholesale)
• 17352 Armstrong Avenue, Irvine – 123,748 SF to Fletcher Jones (Retailer)
• 15345 Barranca Parkway, Irvine – 84,580 SF to Undisclosed Tenant

 What It Means for Occupiers & Investors 

• Occupiers: Rental rates have moderated slightly, giving tenants more negotiating power than they had in 2021–2023. Availability is up, especially in Class B and C product.
• Investors: Sale prices are down and cap rates have expanded ~150 bps year-over-year, creating more attractive entry points in a market that historically delivers strong long-term performance.
• Developers: The pipeline has shrunk 22% from Q3, signaling that new supply is finally tapering as demand stabilizes.

 Outlook 

The return to positive absorption in Q4 2025 is a major inflection point. While full recovery will take several quarters, Orange County’s strategic location, limited new supply, and enduring tenant demand position the market for gradual improvement through 2026.

For the full Q4 2025 Orange County Industrial Market Report contact me directly.

As we wrap up 2025 and look ahead to 2026, the Southern California industrial market continues to demonstrate resilience amid evolving economic conditions. At Lee & Associates, we're excited to share our latest quarterly report, which dives deep into macroeconomic drivers, port activity, and submarket fundamentals across South Bay, Midcounties, Central LA, and the Inland Empire. This blog post provides a high-level summary of the key findings—think of it as your quick guide to the trends shaping industrial real estate in SoCal. For the full details, including charts, data tables, and in-depth analysis, reach out to me directly. I'd be happy to send you the complete PDF report.

Macroeconomic Drivers Fueling Industrial Demand

The U.S. economy showed strength in 2025, with real GDP accelerating to a 4.3% annual rate in Q3—the fastest in two years—driven by consumer spending, exports, and government outlays. Employment growth slowed, adding just 50,000 jobs in December, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. Retail and e-commerce sales remained robust, with total retail up 3.3% year-over-year in November and e-commerce growing 5.1%, accounting for 16.4% of retail activity.Key warehouse occupiers in Q4 included:

• Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Providers: Dominating 35% of leasing, as retailers outsource for flexibility amid trade risks.
• Advanced Manufacturing: Boosted by nearshoring in semiconductors and EVs.
• E-commerce & Omnichannel Retailers: Shifting to smaller urban warehouses for faster deliveries.
• Tech Companies: Leasing big for AI-driven data centers.
• Automotive, Construction, and Food & Beverage: Showing renewed activity with improving housing starts and modern facilities.

Looking to 2026, GDP is projected to grow 2.7%, supported by fiscal stimulus and easing rates, though inflation lingers above 2% and trade policies remain uncertain.

LA & Long Beach Ports: Still the Nation's Trade Powerhouses

SoCal ports handled elevated container volumes in 2025, with LA and Long Beach leading despite year-over-year declines in Q4. LA's total TEUs dropped 14.11% quarterly, while Long Beach saw an 8.82% dip. Inbound loads remained strong, but empties and exports contributed to the slowdown. West Coast gateways continue to anchor U.S. throughput, driving industrial demand in nearby submarkets.

Submarket Spotlights: Trends, KPIs, and Deals

South Bay: Gateway Stability with Modest Easing

Vacancy ticked up to 6.1% (from 6.0% in Q3), with positive net absorption of 90,662 SF offsetting 60,558 SF in deliveries. Under construction: 324,921 SF. Asking rents stabilized at $1.52 NNN, up quarterly but down annually. Sales volume surged to $370.5M, driven by institutional deals.

Top Leases:

• Vie Logistics: 389,097 SF in Rancho Dominguez (Third-Party Logistics)
• Morrison Express: 219,575 SF in Compton (Freight Forwarding)

Top Sales:

• Clarion Partners: 1,008,837 SF portfolio in Compton/LA for $412M
• Morgan Stanley: 143,060 SF in LA for $211.4M

Trends: Availability rose to 6.1%, signaling a balanced market; investment focused on quality assets.

Midcounties: Tight Corridor Loosening Slightly

Vacancy rose to 6.8% (from 6.3%), with 191,874 SF net absorption and 493,874 SF delivered. Under construction: 28,320 SF. Rents held at $1.33 NNN, up quarterly but 11% below last year. Sales cooled to $81M across eight deals.

Top Leases:

• FedEx: 516,124 SF in Downey (Parcel Delivery)
• Peak Logistics: 117,774 SF in Santa Fe Springs (Third-Party Logistics)

Top Sales:

• 3 Industrial: 303,754 SF portfolio in La Mirada for $55M
• World Trade Printing: 89,873 SF in La Mirada for $23.4M

Trends: Direct space drove vacancy uptick; investors remain selective with cap rates at 4.7%.

Central LA: Dense Corridor Showing Signs of Balance

Vacancy dipped to 5.6% (from 6.0%), thanks to strong 1,287,891 SF net absorption and no new deliveries. Under construction: 486,333 SF. Rents softened to $1.40 NNN, flat year-over-year. Sales volume rose on larger deals, with cap rates compressing to 5.4%.

Top Leases:

• Amazon: 615,000 SF in Commerce (E-Commerce)
• Sport Dimension: 132,642 SF in South Gate (Sporting Goods)

Top Sales:

• Hines REIT: 717,065 SF in LA for $287M
• Atlas Capital: 648,000 SF in LA for $241.5M

Trends: Absorption stabilized vacancy; market bifurcated toward infill quality.

Inland Empire: Big-Box Hub Normalizing

Vacancy climbed to 8.1% (from 7.6%), but net absorption rebounded to 2,186,058 SF amid 1,065,546 SF deliveries. Under construction: 6,791,711 SF—the highest pipeline. Rents stabilized at $0.99 NNN, down annually. Sales moderated to lower volumes and $208/SF pricing.

Top Leases:

• Hankook Tire: 754,392 SF in Fontana (Automotive)
• RJW Logistics: 656,695 SF in Perris (Third-Party Logistics)

Top Sales:

• Rexford Industrial: 1,101,400 SF in Fontana for $365M (Sale-Leaseback)
• Costco: 1,613,290 SF in Ontario for $345M (Owner-User)

Trends: Supply growth outpaced demand, but positive absorption signals steady logistics interest.

Final Thoughts and Next Steps

Overall, the SoCal industrial market in Q4 2025 reflected a transition toward balance: softening rents, rising vacancies in some areas, but resilient demand from logistics, e-commerce, and manufacturing. Ports remain a key driver, and with 2026's projected growth, opportunities abound for savvy investors and occupiers.This is just a teaser— the full report includes detailed charts on rent trends, port volumes, and more. If you'd like the complete PDF or have questions about how these insights apply to your industrial needs in Long Beach or beyond, don't hesitate to reach out. Contact me, Ron Mgrublian, at Lee & Associates: rmgrublian@lee-associates.com. Let's connect and discuss your next move!

In the ever-evolving world of commercial real estate, the landscape for industrial site selection has undergone a seismic shift. According to a recent report from Lee & Associates, titled Power, People, Policy: The New Drivers of Industrial Site Selection, strategic incentives are no longer just perks—they're the core architecture behind major expansion and relocation decisions. Amid tariff uncertainties, high interest rates, and cautious tenant growth, companies are leaning heavily on tax abatements, infrastructure grants, workforce programs, and federal initiatives to make projects viable. Let's break down the key insights from this thought leadership piece.

The Evolving Incentives Ecosystem

The report highlights a "layered capital ecosystem" that's fueling massive industrial projects across North America. Federal programs are at the forefront:

• CHIPS Act: This has been a game-changer for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, drawing giants like NVIDIA and TSMC back to the U.S. with their supply chains in tow.
• Inflation Reduction Act: It's pouring billions into clean energy, battery production, hydrogen, grid upgrades, and advanced manufacturing.
• One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): By making the New Markets Tax Credit permanent and boosting Opportunity Zones, it's targeting rural and underserved areas for economic revival.

States and localities are matching this federal momentum with site readiness funds, infrastructure upgrades, and tailored workforce training. Even landlords are getting in on the action, offering free rent periods to offset rising vacancies and occupancy costs. The result? A competitive frenzy that's accelerating industrial growth in tech-heavy sectors like data centers and semiconductors.

Core Drivers: Power, People, and Policy

Site selection now starts with incentives, with three pillars standing out:

• Power Availability: Mega data centers need 400-500 megawatts of reliable, scalable energy. States like Arizona and Texas lead here, offering packages that prioritize infrastructure over pure cost savings.
• Tax Incentives: Sales tax exemptions on equipment can save data center projects $100-200 million upfront, while property tax abatements sweeten the deal further.
• Workforce Considerations: Skilled labor is non-negotiable, with wages benchmarked at $20-25 per hour (thanks to anchors like Amazon and Walmart). Proximity to educational institutions and customized training programs give states like Georgia and Tennessee an edge, creating economic zones around big players like Hyundai and Samsung.

These factors aren't just checkboxes—they're decisive in outbidding competitors.

States Stepping Up Their Game

Competition is heating up regionally:

• East Coast and Midwest: Pennsylvania's Site Readiness Fund preps parcels for quick development. Ohio snagged SEMCORP's $916 million lithium-ion plant with $186 million in incentives, including grants and tax breaks. Indiana is rethinking its scaled-back approach to stay competitive.
• Southern States: Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee excel with "plug-and-play" sites—pre-approved land, guaranteed utilities, and fast permitting.

The report contrasts successes with pitfalls: New Jersey's aggressive incentives under Governor Christie revitalized urban areas, but tighter reforms under Governor Murphy stalled momentum, underscoring the need for balanced policies.

Winning Strategies and Cautionary Tales

Real-world examples illustrate what works:

• Arkansas and Trex: By providing 200 acres of free, prepared land worth $20 million, Arkansas overcame site challenges and clinched a major project with a total $69 million package.
• Oklahoma and Emirates Global Aluminium: A unified push secured a $4 billion aluminum smelter—the first new U.S. primary facility in 45 years—with $700 million in incentives, beating out Mississippi and Texas.
• Ohio and SEMCORP: Workforce analysis and $186 million in tailored incentives anchored this supply-chain win.

On the flip side, avoid missteps like premature announcements (which can kill negotiating leverage) or late consultant involvement. Early "desktop analyses" can evaluate options across locations, as seen with Ollie's Bargain Outlet securing $18.5 million for its Illinois distribution center.

Looking Ahead: Metrics for 2026 and Beyond

As we head into 2026, the report urges tracking key indicators:

• Economic resilience (unemployment, consumer confidence, productivity).
• Labor dynamics (skilled worker availability, wage growth).
• Trade policies and infrastructure (especially power for energy-intensive ops).
• Emerging tech like nuclear (e.g., Kairos Power's modular reactors), hydrogen, fusion, and advanced solar.

Federal defense and reshoring initiatives will align with state incentives, creating prime opportunities for aligned companies.

Final Thoughts: Incentives as a Strategic Compass

Lee & Associates positions incentives as the new north star for U.S. industrial growth. By engaging early, fostering transparency, and building partnerships, brokers and advisors can navigate this complexity. As policies evolve, those who interpret and leverage them will drive the next wave of American manufacturing and distribution.This summary draws from Lee & Associates' expert insights, contributed by North American Director of Incentives & Credits, Mike Mikulski. For the full report, check out their thought leadership series—it's a must-read for anyone in commercial real estate eyeing expansion in this incentive-driven era.

Want the full report? 

Contact:

Ron Mgrublian

Lee & Associates 

(For a complimentary copy of Power, People, Policy: The New Drivers of Industrial Site Selection)

The game has changed. The winners will be the ones who treat incentives as strategy — not just savings.

10680 Silicon Ave, Unit 17-D, Montclair, CA 91763

Offered at $1,377,200 ($400/SF)

Lee & Associates is proud to present this pristine, never-occupied industrial condominium in one of Inland Empire West’s most sought-after business parks. Built in 2024, Unit 17-D delivers modern construction and immediate move-in readiness in a highly desirable location just minutes from the 10, 60, and 71 freeways.

Key Highlights:

• ±3,443 SF industrial condo (100% warehouse – clean shell ready for your build-out)
• Brand-new 2024 tilt-up construction
• High image business park setting
• Fully sprinklered
• High Clear
• 1 ground-level loading door
• M1 zoning (light industrial)
• Close proximity to Ontario International Airport and major logistics corridors
• Vacant and easy to show – available for immediate occupancy at close of escrow

Perfect for owner-users, investors, or 1031 exchange buyers looking for new construction without the wait.

Location Advantages:

• Signalized corner of Silicon Ave & E Holt Ave
• Central Inland Empire West location
• Excellent freeway visibility and access to 10, 60, and 71
• Surrounded by national credit tenants and established industrial users

Priced aggressively at only $400 per square foot for new construction in this submarket.

For additional information, offering memorandum, or to schedule a tour, please contact:

Ron Mgrublian

562-243-7029

rmgrublian@lee-associates.com

Lic. #01902882

Lee & Associates LA – Long Beach, Inc. 

5000 E Spring St, Suite 800, Long Beach, CA 90815

Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own brand-new industrial space in one of the tightest submarkets in Southern California!

As we close out the third quarter of 2025, one phrase from the Federal Reserve keeps ringing in our ears:

“You can’t have negative job growth and 4% GDP growth. Something’s got to give.”– Fed Governor Christopher Waller

That single sentence perfectly captures the strange split-screen economy we’re living through right now.

The Good News: The Economy Refuses to Slow Down (Yet)

• The Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDPNow model is currently tracking +3.9% annualized growth for Q3 — that would be one of the strongest quarters in years.
• Consumers are still spending freely: August retail sales beat forecasts for the third month in a row, with big gains in travel, hotels, and restaurants.
• Q2 GDP was just revised higher to +3.8%, the fastest pace in nearly two years.

If you only looked at spending and output, you’d think we’re in the middle of a boom.

The Worrying News: The Job Market Is Flashing Red

• Only ~22,000 jobs were added in August (the last official report before the government shutdown).
• Private payrolls actually shrank by 32,000 in September (ADP data).
• Announced layoffs in 2025 are running at the highest level since the 2020 lockdowns — over 120,000 cuts from companies including Amazon, UPS, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and many others. A recurring theme? AI-driven efficiencies.
• Unemployment is holding at 4.3% only because far fewer jobs are needed each month to keep it steady (Deutsche Bank estimates ~50k vs. 130k a year ago) thanks to retiring boomers, lower immigration, and rising deportations.

The Fed Is Stuck in the Middle

In late October the Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, but Chair Powell made it clear: another cut in December is not a done deal. 

Two Fed governors actually dissented in opposite directions — one wanted a 50 bps cut, the other wanted zero. That’s stagflation-level disagreement.

Powell is now openly talking about AI layoffs: “You see a significant number of companies… talking about AI and what it can do. We’re watching that very, very carefully.”

Around the World: Uncertainty Is the Only Certainty

• IMF global growth forecast: slowing to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
• World trade growth is expected to drop sharply as lingering tariffs, immigration restrictions, and fiscal stimulus create cross-currents.
• A small bright spot: China and the U.S. hit pause on the rare-earths fight after Xi announced a one-year delay on tighter export controls.

What This Means for Commercial Real Estate

Occupiers and investors hate uncertainty — and right now we have plenty:

• Tariffs still rolling out
• Government shutdown dragging on
• AI reshaping headcount faster than most expected
• Fed policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis

Until either (a) the labor market stabilizes or (b) GDP finally slows to meet it, many tenants will stay cautious on expansion plans and investors will demand extra risk premium.

We’re not calling for a recession tomorrow, but the gap between a roaring consumer and a cooling job market can’t widen forever.

Something’s got to give.We’ll keep watching the data (official and private) and bring you updates as soon as the government reopens and the picture clears.

In the meantime, stay nimble.

~ Lee & Associates Research Team 

LEE-ASSOCIATES.COM/RESEARCH

Lee & Associates is proud to announce the successful sale of 1491 E Mission Blvd, Pomona, CA 91766 — a highly versatile ±38,833 SF industrial parcel ideal for owner-users.

Key Features:

• Expansive secured yard
• Office/residence on-site
• Excellent access to 60, 71 & 10 Freeways

Buyer Represented By:

Ron Mgrublian, MBA

Principal | DRE #01902882 

📞 562.354.2537 

✉️ rmgrublian@leelalb.com

Lee & Associates Los Angeles - Long Beach, Inc.

5000 E Spring St, Suite 600, Long Beach, CA 90815 

Proven Results. Trusted Representation.

Contact us to maximize your property’s value.

The industrial real estate sector is shifting from large-scale warehouses to small-bay industrial properties (2,000–10,000 sq ft), which are emerging as a resilient, high-performing asset class driven by structural demand and favorable fundamentals.

Key Market Fundamentals

• Vacancy: Small-bay vacancy at 4.2% vs. 7.4% for large-scale industrial.
• Rent Growth: Small-bay rents up >40% since 2020, far outpacing broader industrial growth.
• Tenant Stability: Shorter leases, high retention, and "sticky" tenants who expand/contract within parks.
• Operational Advantages: Lower maintenance, scalable portfolios, and diversification reduce risk.

Demand Drivers

• Reshoring & Local Logistics: Proximity to customers supports service trades, contractors, and regional distributors.
• Small Businesses: Over 36 million U.S. small businesses (nearly 50% of private-sector jobs) fuel consistent demand.
• Last-Mile & Urban Infill: Rising fulfillment costs push tenants toward efficient, right-sized spaces.

Hotspot Markets (U.S. & Canada)

Investment Momentum

• Q2 2025 Sales: Properties <150K sq ft = 62% of industrial transaction volume ($5.89B in $5–25M range).
• Pricing: Small-bay sale prices up 55% since Q3 2020 (avg. $104/psf in Eastern PA/NJ).
• Investor Profile: Strong local/regional buyer activity; off-market deals dominate to avoid bidding wars.
• Institutional Interest: Growing but still a local landlord’s game.

Strategic Outlook

• Scarcity is Structural: Zoning, land constraints, and high construction costs limit new supply.
• Risk Mitigation: Diversified tenant base and short leases hedge against volatility.
• Caution: Rising rents causing tenant pushback in overheated markets — credit diligence critical.

Conclusion

Small-bay industrial is no longer a niche — it’s the connective tissue of modern industrial real estate. With systemic supply constraints, secular demand trends, and superior risk-adjusted returns, it offers investors agility, durability, and alpha in an evolving cycle.

“The next decade won’t be about size. It will be about agility, adaptability, and execution.”

Market Summary

• Demand Softening: Industrial demand continued to ease in Q3, with negative net absorption of -850,291 SF — the largest quarterly loss in 2025 and the 11th consecutive quarter of tenant contraction.
• Vacancy Surge: Countywide vacancy rose to 6.6%, the highest since the Great Recession (up from 1.8% over the past 11 quarters).
• Lease Rates Declining: Average NNN asking rate fell to $18.12 PSF (down from $19.20 PSF in Q3 2024).
• Tenant Concessions at Peak: Landlords offering maximum incentives to attract tenants.
• Bright Spot: Increased activity in 100,000–200,000 SF distribution & manufacturing spaces.

Key Market Indicators (Q3 2025 vs Prior Quarters)

Top Lease Transactions (by SF)

Top Sale Transactions (by SF)

Outlook

• Rising vacancy and falling rents signal a tenant-favorable market.
• Sales activity remains resilient, with average sale prices up 10% YoY despite higher cap rates.
• Construction pipeline cooling (down ~24% from Q2), potentially stabilizing supply in 2026.

Source: Lee & Associates Research, CoStar, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | © 2025

Q3 2025 San Gabriel Valley (SGV), CA Industrial Market Summary

Market Recovery Signs

• Vacancy Rate: Down to 5.3% (from 6.4% in Q3 2024), with YTD improvement to 5.4% from 6.2% in 2024.
• Net Absorption: Strong rebound with +1.56M SF YTD; 12-month total at +2.12M SF (vs. -1.78M SF in Q3 2024).
• Leasing Activity: Robust at ~9M SF across 539 deals, indicating tenant re-entry despite elevated availability (~6.4%).

Rents & Pricing Trends

• Avg NNN Asking Rent: $1.29 PSF, down from $1.49 PSF (Q3 2024) — reflecting landlord competition.
• Sale Price PSF: $240.24, down from $285.03 in Q2 2025.
• Cap Rate: Compressed to 4.8% (from 6.1% in Q3 2024), signaling rising investor confidence.

Supply & Development

• Under Construction: 617K SF — limited pipeline, new deliveries slowed significantly.
• Total Inventory: 177.75M SF, stable with minimal additions.

Top Lease Transactions (by SF)

Top Sale Transactions (Portfolio Deal by TA Realty)

Outlook: SGV industrial market is stabilizing with improving fundamentals, strong leasing, and moderating rents. Low construction and positive absorption support a tenant-favorable but recovering environment.

Source: Lee & Associates Research, Q3 2025

Lee & Associates is thrilled to announce the successful sale of 10843 Los Vaqueros Cir, Los Alamitos, CA 90720 — a ±9,311 SF turnkey industrial building that’s now off the market!

🔥 Key Highlights:

• 18–19’ Clear Height – Perfect for racking and vertical storage
• Dual Loading Doors – Streamlined logistics and easy access
• Paved Yard – Extra space for parking, staging, or outdoor operations
• Prime Los Alamitos Location – Centrally located with excellent freeway proximity

This move-in-ready facility attracted strong buyer interest, and we’re proud to have represented the buyer in this transaction.

Buyer Represented By:

Ron Mgrublian, MBA

Principal | DRE Lic #01902882

📞 562.354.2537 

📧 rmgrublian@leelalb.com

👏 Congratulations to our client on securing a high-quality industrial asset in one of Orange County’s most desirable submarkets!

Looking to buy, sell, or lease industrial space in Greater LA?

Connect with Ron and the Lee & Associates Los Angeles – Long Beach team today.

Overview

The "Industrial Market Insights Q3 2025" report by Lee & Associates analyzes the Southern California industrial real estate market, focusing on the South Bay, Midcounties, Central, and Inland Empire submarkets. It highlights macroeconomic drivers, trade trends, port activity, and submarket-specific fundamentals like vacancy rates, net absorption, rents, construction, and top transactions. Overall, the market shows softening conditions with rising vacancies, declining rents in some areas, and stabilizing investor activity amid economic moderation. Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB) remain dominant U.S. trade gateways, though competition from East/Gulf Coast ports intensifies.

Macroeconomic Drivers

• GDP: Real GDP grew 3.8% annualized in Q2 2025, rebounding from a 0.6% Q1 decline, driven by consumer spending and reduced imports. Q3 growth is projected at ~3%.
• Employment: Unemployment rose to 4.3% in August, with only 22,000 jobs added (downward revisions to prior months). Wage growth of 3.7% year-over-year supports consumer spending.
• Retail & E-Commerce Sales: E-commerce sales hit $304.2B in Q2 (up 1.4% QoQ, 5.3% YoY), representing 16.3% of total retail sales ($1.87T, up 0.4% QoQ, 3.9% YoY).
• Trade Partners: Mexico leads U.S. trade at 21%, followed by Canada (17%) and China (10%). Top 15 partners account for 74.2% of activity.
• Year-End Outlook: GDP growth ~2.6% annualized in Q4, with stable consumer spending despite labor cooling and a government shutdown. Moderate expansion and cooling inflation bode well for 2026 commercial real estate.

Port Activity

LA and LB ports handled ~41% of U.S. imports by TEU market share. West Coast ports lead in throughput, but East/Gulf ports (e.g., NY/NJ, Houston) are gaining.

Submarket Summaries

South Bay

• Fundamentals: Vacancy rose to 6.9% (from 6.3% in Q2). Net absorption negative at (757,229) SF. Deliveries: 429,112 SF. Under construction: 244,786 SF.
• Rents & Sales: Average NNN rent fell to $1.48/SF (down 8.5% YoY). Building sales averaged $291/SF (cap rate 6.4%).
• Market Trends: Softening conditions with higher availability (9.5%); tenant-favorable market. Investment slowed (13 deals, $75.4M volume).
• Top Leases (all new): 19801 S Santa Fe Ave (356,642 SF, Confidential); 901 E 233rd St (221,050 SF, Custom Goods); 20846 Normandie Ave (203,877 SF, Hadrian Inc).
• Top Sales: 3700-3730 Redondo Beach Blvd (99,377 SF, $35.5M, Investment); 2959 E Victoria St (54,500 SF, $23M, Owner-User).

Midcounties

• Fundamentals: Vacancy fell to 7.3% (from 8.0% in Q2). Net absorption positive at 678,807 SF. Deliveries: 0 SF. Under construction: 493,874 SF.
• Rents & Sales: Average NNN rent at $1.30/SF (down 16% YoY). Building sales averaged $259/SF (cap rate ~5.0%).
• Market Trends: Stabilizing with lower direct vacancy; availability at 9.8%. Investment slowed (17 deals, $148.2M volume).
• Top Leases: 15614-15700 Shoemaker Ave (521,091 SF, Breakthru Beverage CA, New); 8201 Sorensen Ave (234,330 SF, Rove Concepts, Renewal).
• Top Sales: 6259 Descanso Ave (54,000 SF, $17.4M, Owner-User); 14390 Marquardt Ave (31,308 SF, $17M, Owner-User).

Central

• Fundamentals: Vacancy rose to 7.1% (from 6.8% in Q2). Net absorption negative at (465,078) SF. Deliveries: 157,715 SF. Under construction: 749,742 SF.
• Rents & Sales: Average NNN rent steady at $1.41/SF. Building sales averaged $295/SF.
• Market Trends: Slight softening; availability at 8.5%, occupancy 92.9%. Steady sales (25 deals, $190.4M volume).
• Top Leases: 8500 Rex Rd (335,600 SF, Million Dollar Baby Classic, New); 4885 E 52nd Pl (210,347 SF, Uniuni, New).
• Top Sales: 4400 Pacific Blvd (253,200 SF, $48.8M, Investment); 7400 Bandini Blvd (94,937 SF, $38.5M, Owner-User).

Inland Empire

• Fundamentals: Vacancy rose to 8.9% (from 8.1% in Q2). Net absorption negative at (746,596) SF. Deliveries: 5,299,580 SF. Under construction: 6,036,579 SF.
• Rents & Sales: Average NNN rent up to $1.00/SF (from $0.98 in Q2, down 12% YoY). Building sales averaged $252/SF (cap rate 5.9%).
• Market Trends: Balancing with high availability (12.3%); occupancy ~91%. Investment surged (55 deals, $777.2M volume).
• Top Leases: 5690 Industrial Pky (844,311 SF, iDC Logistics, New); 13052 Jurupa Ave (827,578 SF, Elogistek, New).
• Top Sales: 11991 Landon Dr (765,456 SF, $208.76M, Investment); 22491 Harley Knox Blvd (348,375 SF, $90.6M, Investment).

The report emphasizes logistics and manufacturing as key industries in transactions, with a tenant-favorable shift prioritizing occupancy over rent growth. Data sourced from AIR CRE, CoStar, and internal databases.

*Source: Lee & Associates Q3 2025 North America Market Report