Commercial Real Estate

As we close out the third quarter of 2025, one phrase from the Federal Reserve keeps ringing in our ears:

“You can’t have negative job growth and 4% GDP growth. Something’s got to give.”– Fed Governor Christopher Waller

That single sentence perfectly captures the strange split-screen economy we’re living through right now.

The Good News: The Economy Refuses to Slow Down (Yet)

• The Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDPNow model is currently tracking +3.9% annualized growth for Q3 — that would be one of the strongest quarters in years.
• Consumers are still spending freely: August retail sales beat forecasts for the third month in a row, with big gains in travel, hotels, and restaurants.
• Q2 GDP was just revised higher to +3.8%, the fastest pace in nearly two years.

If you only looked at spending and output, you’d think we’re in the middle of a boom.

The Worrying News: The Job Market Is Flashing Red

• Only ~22,000 jobs were added in August (the last official report before the government shutdown).
• Private payrolls actually shrank by 32,000 in September (ADP data).
• Announced layoffs in 2025 are running at the highest level since the 2020 lockdowns — over 120,000 cuts from companies including Amazon, UPS, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and many others. A recurring theme? AI-driven efficiencies.
• Unemployment is holding at 4.3% only because far fewer jobs are needed each month to keep it steady (Deutsche Bank estimates ~50k vs. 130k a year ago) thanks to retiring boomers, lower immigration, and rising deportations.

The Fed Is Stuck in the Middle

In late October the Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, but Chair Powell made it clear: another cut in December is not a done deal. 

Two Fed governors actually dissented in opposite directions — one wanted a 50 bps cut, the other wanted zero. That’s stagflation-level disagreement.

Powell is now openly talking about AI layoffs: “You see a significant number of companies… talking about AI and what it can do. We’re watching that very, very carefully.”

Around the World: Uncertainty Is the Only Certainty

• IMF global growth forecast: slowing to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
• World trade growth is expected to drop sharply as lingering tariffs, immigration restrictions, and fiscal stimulus create cross-currents.
• A small bright spot: China and the U.S. hit pause on the rare-earths fight after Xi announced a one-year delay on tighter export controls.

What This Means for Commercial Real Estate

Occupiers and investors hate uncertainty — and right now we have plenty:

• Tariffs still rolling out
• Government shutdown dragging on
• AI reshaping headcount faster than most expected
• Fed policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis

Until either (a) the labor market stabilizes or (b) GDP finally slows to meet it, many tenants will stay cautious on expansion plans and investors will demand extra risk premium.

We’re not calling for a recession tomorrow, but the gap between a roaring consumer and a cooling job market can’t widen forever.

Something’s got to give.We’ll keep watching the data (official and private) and bring you updates as soon as the government reopens and the picture clears.

In the meantime, stay nimble.

~ Lee & Associates Research Team 

LEE-ASSOCIATES.COM/RESEARCH

The report from Lee & Associates discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate policy on commercial real estate (CRE) investments in 2025. Following a modest 0.25% rate cut in September 2024, bringing the benchmark to 4.00%-4.25%, the Fed signals cautious easing amid persistent inflation (core at 3.1%, headline at 2.9%) and internal debates on neutral rates (ranging from 2.5% to 4%). This environment shifts CRE from momentum-driven to performance-based strategies, with elevated borrowing costs (often >6%) repricing risk, portfolios, and values. Key themes include structural rate pressures, refinancing crises, sector divergences, cap rate tensions, and adaptive investment approaches.

Key Challenges

• Persistent Rates and Inflation: Sticky inflation in housing and services keeps rates high, with 10-year Treasuries near 4%. Lenders demand stronger sponsorship, conservative leverage, and NOI stability, leading to tighter spreads and shorter terms. The recent cut offers short-term relief but minimal impact on long-term capital.
• Refinancing Risk: $1.5 trillion in CRE loans mature by end-2025, prompting short-term extensions. Properties from peak eras face shortfalls, especially in office and multifamily sectors. Markets like Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix see stretched debt-service ratios, forcing sales, payoffs, or defaults.

Sector-Specific Impacts

• Office: Undergoing restructuring with vacancies >20% in cities like Denver, Chicago, and San Francisco (especially Class B/C). Flight-to-quality persists, but even premium assets face tenant risks. Conversions to lab/residential/flex space rise, with trades at 30-70% discounts from peaks.
• Multifamily: Favored but divergent—urban cores (e.g., New York, Boston, LA) stabilize with low vacancies; Sun Belt oversupply (e.g., Austin, Raleigh) leads to concessions and 10%+ vacancies. High costs, rent caps (e.g., Washington's ~9.7% in 2026), and extended lease-ups complicate deals. Private buyers target below-replacement-value assets.
• Industrial: Remains strong but cooled, with national vacancy at 7.4%. Big-box absorption slows in Phoenix and Chicago, but infill/last-mile/flex/cold storage thrives in constrained markets due to tenant retention and limited supply.
• Retail: Resilient with 4.3% national vacancy. Grocery-anchored and experiential assets outperform in Miami, Charlotte, and San Diego. Bifurcation exists: outdated centers in tertiary markets soften, while cash-flowing properties attract private capital.

Cap Rates and Valuation

Cap rates appear stable nationally but mask a buyer-seller standoff—sellers cling to peak pricing, buyers factor in risks. Tension persists into late 2025, especially in multifamily and industrial, with repricing often subtle rather than overt yield shifts.

Investment Strategies for the New Normal

Investors shift from Fed-pivot anticipation to disciplined execution:

• Prioritize In-Place Cash Flow: Stabilized income hedges against costs and dislocations.
• Operational Execution: Focus on leasing, expense control, and targeted repositioning over major capex.
• Underwrite Exits Upfront: Deals must stand alone, assuming full-cycle ownership.
• Creative Financing: Use seller carrybacks, preferred equity, and hybrids to bridge gaps.
• Value-Add Focus: Target assets with fixable issues (e.g., leasing friction) without overcapitalizing.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes CRE's maturation in a rate-sensitive era, rewarding pragmatism and local insight. The Fed's cut boosts confidence modestly, but elevated rates are the baseline—opportunities lie in fundamentals, not speculation. Insights from Lee professionals highlight fragmentation and selectivity.

Available : ±1,800 – ±6,600 

Lot Size: ±40,847 SF of Land

Zoning: C-P (PCD)

APN: 8447-031-038

Park-like setting: The building is situated in a serene environment with beautiful views of the park.

Ample parking: Large lot with ±28 Parking Spaces

Next to 10 Freeway with close access to 57, 71, 210 & 60 Freeway

Located at 2403 E. 223rd Street, Carson, CA 90810, this rare ±4.2-acre (±182,746 SF) parcel offers exceptional I-405 Freeway visibility with over 310,000 average daily vehicles passing directly in front of the site – perfect for branding, automotive, EV charging, or any high-exposure use.

Key Highlights:

• Size: ±182,746 SF (±4.2 acres) of flat, usable land
• Sale Price: $9,685,538 ($53.00 PSF)
• Lease Rate: $70,000 per month (Net)
• Zoning: Commercial Automotive (Carson Auto Row) – broad range of uses including auto sales, service, EV charging stations, etc.
• APN: 7315-012-002 & 7315-012-804
• Direct adjacency to the 405 Freeway and close proximity to SCE Hinson Substation
• Carson’s business-friendly environment: low business license fees & utility taxes
• Heavy traffic counts: 405 Freeway segments show 264,000–291,000+ ADT

Location Advantages:

• Situated in the heart of Carson’s established Auto Row
• Excellent access to 405, 710, and 91 freeways
• Strong surrounding demographics with median household incomes of $84,000+ (1-mile) rising to over $93,000 by 2028

This high-profile site is ideal for auto dealerships, EV charging hubs, equipment storage, or any operation that benefits from maximum freeway exposure and easy access.

Contact:

Ron Mgrublian, 

Principal Lee & Associates 

+1 (562) 354-2537 | rmgrublian@leelalb.com

DRE# 01902882

Lee & Associates is proud to present 12793 Garvey Avenue, a highly functional ±20,847 SF industrial building situated on nearly an acre (±40,847 SF) of land in the heart of Baldwin Park, California. Listed for sale with a negotiable price, this freestanding property offers an outstanding combination of location, visibility, and operational efficiency — ideal for owner-users, investors, or businesses seeking a strategic San Gabriel Valley foothold.

Key Highlights:

• Unbeatable Freeway Visibility – Positioned directly along the heavily traveled 605 and 10 freeways with daily traffic counts exceeding 200,000+ vehicles, providing exceptional signage and branding exposure.
• Building Specifications – 24’–27’ warehouse clearance height, 1,600 Amps of power, three (3) ground-level loading doors, and a spacious fenced and paved yard.
• Ample Parking & Yard Area – 42 on-site parking spaces plus a large secured yard perfect for truck maneuvering, outdoor storage, or future expansion.
• Strategic Infill Location – Minutes from the 605, 10, 210, and 60 freeways, offering seamless access to Los Angeles, Orange County, and the Inland Empire.
• Zoning – I-C (Industrial-Commercial), Baldwin Park, allowing for a wide variety of industrial and commercial uses.  Cannabis Permitted Area.

The property features a clean, open warehouse layout with high ceilings, abundant natural light, and flexible office configurations. Whether you’re a manufacturer or distributor, 12793 Garvey Ave delivers the infrastructure and accessibility needed to support growing operations.

Contact:

Ron Mgrublian, Principal 

Lee & Associates – LA/Long Beach 

P: (562) 354-2537 

E: rmgrublian@leelalb.com

DRE# 01902882

This rare offering combines high-image freeway frontage with functional industrial improvements in one of Southern California’s most supply-constrained submarkets. Opportunities like this don’t last long — schedule your tour today!

GDP Growth: 

• U.S. GDP grew at an annualized 2.8% in Q3, slightly below Q2's 3%.
• Consumer spending rose 3.7%, the fastest since Q1 2023, but residential investment dropped 5.1%, its second consecutive decline.
• Inflation hit the Fed's 2% target, with unemployment steady near 4%.

 Employment: 

• 254,000 jobs were added in September, the largest gain in six months.
• The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while wages increased 4% year-over-year.
• Upward revisions to prior months' job numbers highlight ongoing labor market resilience.

 Monetary Policy: 

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5% in September, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5%.
• Strong job data makes further significant rate cuts unlikely.
• Fed Chair Powell emphasized balancing inflation control with stable employment.

 Global Economy: 

• IMF projects global growth of 3.2% for 2024-2025, with risks from regional conflicts and trade disruptions.
• Emerging Asia sees growth upgrades due to semiconductor demand, while Europe faces downgrades.
• Global inflation is expected to decline from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.
• Long-term growth remains constrained by aging populations and weak productivity.

• The Inland Empire West submarket experienced a stall in net activity during Q3.
• Subleases and renewals dominated top lease transactions.
• Vacancy rates increased slightly, while availability trended downward.
• Pricing remained steady, but tenant concessions (e.g., free rent, tenant improvements) have risen and are now widely expected.
• Industrial construction slowed significantly, with the development pipeline at 43% of its year-over-year level.
• Institutional interest in the market continues to grow despite reduced activity.

AVAILABLE: ± 36,000 SF Lot Land

BUILDING SIZE: ±18,000SF

ASKING PRICE: $298 PSF ($5,364,000.00)

APN#: 6129-006-020 & 6129-006-021

ZONING: LA Unincorporated M2

• Free Standing Industrial Building

• Fenced/Paved Yard area

• Dock High Possible

• No City Business Tax

• 3 Ground Level Doors/4 Bathrooms

• Solar Lighting

• Bonus Unfinished Mezzanine

• Glass Kiln/Oven

• Close to 110, 405, 91 and 105 Freeways

• In Q3 2024, San Gabriel Valley's industrial market remained robust with a 6.3% vacancy rate.
• Rental rates softened slightly, now at $17.76 per square foot (PSF), NNN annually, indicating a balanced supply-demand dynamic.
• The construction pipeline remains active, with 545,702 square feet of new industrial space under development.
• The City of Industry, a dominant player in the area, accounts for 72% of SGV’s industrial space, focusing on modern Class A warehouse and distribution centers.
• As market conditions shift, tenants and developers must stay agile, seizing opportunities and addressing challenges in this thriving industrial landscape. Adaptability will be essential for maintaining a competitive edge.

• Demand for industrial space weakened countywide in Q3, with an increase in sublet space.
• Vacancy rates are the highest since 2013 but still 200 basis points below the national average.
• The decline in net absorption is the largest year-to-date drop in 15 years.
• Average rents fell for the seventh consecutive quarter.
• Countywide negative net absorption in Q3 totaled 1.3 million SF, bringing the annual total to 4.1 million SF, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
• The average triple-net rental rate dropped to $1.59 per SF, down from the $1.71 peak at the end of 2023.
• Q3's 5% vacancy rate is an increase from 2% in Q1 2023.

In Q3 2024, the South Bay submarket saw a continued increase in vacant space, with the vacancy rate rising to 4.4%, up 20 basis points from Q2 and 50 basis points year-over-year. Tenants are becoming more selective, taking advantage of longer decision-making periods. Despite a 7.8% year-over-year decline in average asking rents, rents remained somewhat resilient due to concessions from landlords.

Leasing activity included 1.37 million square feet of new deals, though it was below the 10-year average. Net absorption was positive for the first time in a year, at +669,007 square feet. Construction continues with 1.5 million square feet in progress, which could impact vacancy rates if demand doesn't catch up.

Sales activity increased from Q2 but remained significantly lower than in 2023. Sales volume reached $71.9 million, and average prices per square foot dropped 22.5% year-over-year to $258.92.

GDP Growth: Q2 2024

• U.S. GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in Q2, up from 1.4% in Q1.
• Growth driven by increased consumer spending, business investment, and inventory growth.
• Consumer spending rose by about 2%, especially in health care, housing, recreation, and durable goods.
• Business investment increased, particularly in equipment and intellectual property.
• Inventory growth was notable in wholesale and retail trade, offset by declines in mining, utilities, and construction.
• Gross domestic purchases prices increased by 2.3%, down from 3.1% in Q1.
• Excluding food and energy, prices increased by 2.5%, down from 3.3% in Q1.
• Personal consumption expenditures price index increased by 2.6%, compared to 3.4% in Q1.
• Current-dollar personal income increased by $237.6 billion, down from $396.8 billion in Q1.
• Real disposable personal income growth slowed, and the personal saving rate decreased to 3.5%.

Employment: Q2 2024

• 206,000 jobs added in June, with a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%.
• Labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, driven by prime-age workers.
• Wage growth slowed, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% from May and 3.9% year-over-year.
• Job growth mainly in government and healthcare sectors.
• Private sector payrolls slowed, with gains in construction offset by declines in manufacturing.
• Job openings rose to 8.14 million in May, but a cooling trend is expected.

Monetary Policy: Q2 2024

• Federal Reserve left the overnight federal funds rate unchanged.
• Potential for at least one interest rate cut in 2024 remains.
• Disinflation resumed, with CPI inflation falling to 3.3% in May.
• FOMC held rates steady, awaiting further evidence of returning inflation to the 2% target.
• Financial markets expect a 0.25% rate reduction in September.
• Labor market showed better balance between supply and demand, with nominal wage increases trending down.

Global Economy: Q2 2024

• IMF forecasted global growth at 3.2% for 2024 and 3.3% for 2025.
• U.S. growth revised to 2.6% for 2024, slowing to 1.9% in 2025.
• Euro area expected to see modest growth driven by services and net exports.
• Japan's growth outlook revised downward due to supply disruptions and weak investment.
• Stronger activity in emerging markets, especially China (5% growth forecast for 2024) and India (7%).
• Latin America faced downward revisions for Brazil and Mexico due to natural disasters and moderating demand.
• Middle East and Central Asia impacted by oil production cuts and regional conflicts, with notable downward revisions for Saudi Arabia and Sudan.