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Orange County’s industrial market showed encouraging signs of stabilization in the first quarter of 2026, recording positive net absorption for the second straight quarter.

After 11 consecutive quarters of declining demand totaling nearly 9.5 million square feet, the county posted +540,161 SF of net absorption in Q1. This improvement, led by modest tenant expansion in the Airport and West County submarkets, is welcome news for both property owners and business occupiers.

Key Highlights from the Q1 2026 Report:

• Vacancy Rate: Rose slightly to 6.30% (still well below the national average of 7.5%)
• Average NNN Asking Rent: $18.12 PSF (modest softening from $18.36 in Q4 2025)
• Sale Prices: Increased to $362 PSF, up from $314 PSF last quarter
• Cap Rates: Compressed to 4.84%, reflecting continued strong investor demand
• Under Construction: Dropped sharply to 840,178 SF as new speculative development slows

The county’s total inventory now stands at 305.3 million SF. While available space has increased significantly since 2022 due to new deliveries, the return of positive absorption suggests demand is beginning to catch up with supply in certain areas.

Notable Q1 Transactions:

Top Sales:

• 576,234 SF portfolio at 200 & 250 S. Kraemer Blvd, Brea – Sold for $139 million ($241 PSF)
• 195,617 SF at 415 & 1425 S. Acacia Street, Fullerton – Sold for $46.6 million
• 93,750 SF at Aliso Creek Road, Aliso Viejo – Sold for $41.05 million ($438 PSF)

Top Leases:

• 229,422 SF in Fullerton to Houdini, Inc.
• 132,503 SF in Santa Ana to Cubework
• 100,784 SF in Anaheim to Hyper Solutions, Inc.

What This Means for Owners and Occupiers

For property owners and investors: Rising sale prices and compressing cap rates demonstrate that investor appetite for Orange County industrial assets remains healthy, even in a higher interest rate environment. However, with more vacant space available, leasing velocity and rental growth will require targeted marketing and competitive positioning.

For occupiers and tenants: The current environment offers more options and slightly softer rental rates than the tight market of recent years. Businesses looking to expand or relocate may find improved negotiating leverage, especially in newer or well-located buildings.

Local business leaders continue to highlight geopolitical tensions (including the war with Iran), rising fuel costs, inflation, and interest rates as the biggest challenges facing area companies.

Want the full Q1 2026 Orange County Industrial Market Report?

As a local industrial specialist with Lee & Associates, I have the complete report with detailed submarket breakdowns, additional transaction data, and deeper analysis. Whether you’re an owner evaluating your portfolio, planning a sale, or an occupier considering expansion or relocation, I’d be happy to provide you with a complimentary copy and discuss how these trends impact your specific situation.

Contact me today to request your copy of the full report and to get a personalized market update tailored to your needs.

The Southern California industrial market is entering 2026 with a noticeably different tone than the past few years. After an extended period of aggressive rent growth and tight vacancy, Q1 data shows a market that is recalibrating—offering more flexibility and opportunity for tenants while forcing landlords and investors to adjust expectations.

A Slowing but Stable Economic Backdrop

The broader U.S. economy is sending mixed signals. Growth slowed sharply at the end of 2025, with GDP rising just 0.5% in Q4. While early 2026 projections are more optimistic, underlying demand has softened and inflation remains persistent.

At the same time, the labor market appears stable on the surface, but cracks are forming. Job growth continues, yet long-term unemployment is rising and workforce participation remains muted. Consumer spending—especially e-commerce—continues to support industrial demand, but at a more moderate pace than in prior years.

Logistics Are Being Rewritten in Real Time

One of the most important shifts happening today isn’t just economic—it’s operational.

Cargo flow through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach declined modestly year-over-year in Q1. However, the bigger story is how goods are moving. A growing share of containers—now estimated at 35% to 38%—are leaving ports via on-dock rail rather than local trucking.

This shift is:

• Reducing demand for short-haul warehousing and transloading
• Increasing efficiency for long-haul distribution
• Creating new challenges for drayage operators

In short, logistics is becoming more streamlined—but also more selective in how space is utilized.

Power Is the New Location Driver

A major emerging constraint in industrial real estate is power availability.

With increasing demand from data centers, EV manufacturers, and AI-driven industries, the electrical grid is under pressure. Delivering sufficient power to a site can take 8–10 years due to infrastructure and permitting challenges.

For tenants in aerospace, defense, and advanced manufacturing, this is quickly becoming a deciding factor in site selection—sometimes even more important than location or building specs.

Market Fundamentals: Softening Across the Board

Across all major Southern California submarkets, a consistent theme has emerged: softening fundamentals and increased tenant leverage.

South Bay

• Vacancy increased to 6.3%
• Rents declined to ~$1.47 NNN (down ~9% year-over-year)
• Negative absorption signals reduced demand
• Investment activity remains selective

Mid-Counties

• Vacancy stabilized at 6.4%
• Rents fell to ~$1.28 NNN (down ~11% year-over-year)
• Sales volume dropped significantly, despite stable pricing

Central Los Angeles

• Vacancy tightened slightly to 5.5%
• Rents eased to ~$1.35 NNN
• Market nearing stabilization with balanced conditions

Inland Empire

• Vacancy remains elevated at 8.1%
• Rents declined to ~$0.96 NNN
• High supply levels continue to create competition among landlords

What This Means for Tenants and Owners

For tenants, this is the most favorable environment in years. More available space, declining rents, and increased concessions are creating opportunities to upgrade facilities, renegotiate leases, or expand strategically.

For landlords and investors, the market is demanding a more disciplined approach. Pricing is adjusting, cap rates are expanding, and deal-making requires flexibility and creativity.

Looking Ahead

The remainder of 2026 is expected to bring moderate economic growth, continued e-commerce expansion, and increasing demand from technology-driven industries. However, uncertainty remains elevated due to geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and infrastructure limitations.

The industrial market isn’t weakening—it’s evolving.

And in this new phase, success will depend on adaptability: understanding shifting logistics patterns, anticipating infrastructure constraints, and aligning real estate strategies with where demand is actually heading—not where it used to be.

Get the Full Report

If you’d like a copy of the complete Q1 2026 Industrial Market Report with detailed data, charts, and property-level insights, feel free to reach out.

Contact me directly to receive your copy or to discuss how these trends impact your real estate strategy.

If you're seeking an industrial asset with an attractive 5.7% current cap rate, strong income streams, and significant upside potential, look no further than 2350 Central Avenue in Irwindale, CA.

This ±2+ acre industrial property delivers immediate cash flow while offering excellent long-term value in one of Southern California’s most strategic industrial submarkets.

Property Highlights

• 5.7% Current Cap Rate on a $7,000,000 list price
• ~24,000 SF building (including ~3,700 SF office space)
• Large ±102,502 SF lot (over 2 acres) with expansive yard
• Currently fully leased to a single tenant on a short-term basis
• Additional revenue from an established RV parking business and a prominent income-producing billboard (month-to-month)
• M2 (Heavy Manufacturing) zoning for broad use flexibility

The combination of stable tenant income plus RV parking and billboard revenue creates a solid, multi-stream cash flow foundation — making the 5.7% cap rate even more compelling.

Prime Location & Connectivity

Located in the heart of the San Gabriel Valley, the property offers direct access to the 605 (San Gabriel Freeway) and 210 (Foothill Freeway), along with close proximity to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, major rail lines, and the Metro Gold Line (A Line).

Key site features include:

• Excellent freeway visibility
• Fenced and secured yard
• Dock-high loading potential
• Strong access to labor, dining, shopping, and entertainment

Why This Property Stands Out

In today’s market, a 5.7% cap rate on a well-located industrial asset with multiple income sources and redevelopment potential is increasingly difficult to find. Whether you're an investor looking for attractive current yield or an owner-user seeking room to grow, 2350 Central Avenue provides both stability today and significant upside for the future.

This is a rare opportunity to acquire a versatile industrial property in a high-demand logistics corridor with proven cash flow and strong fundamentals.

Ready to learn more? Contact me today for the full offering memorandum, financial details, or to schedule a private tour.

Ron Mgrublian

Lee & Associates +1 562 354 2537

rmgrublian@leelalb.com

Lic. 01902882

All information from sources believed reliable but should be independently verified. Buyer to confirm all details, including cap rate and financials. No representations or warranties.

As we wrap up 2025, the industrial real estate sector across North America faced headwinds from U.S. trade policies and tariffs, leading to softened demand and slower growth. According to Lee & Associates' Q4 2025 Market Report, net absorption, deliveries, and rent increases all decelerated, marking a shift from the post-COVID boom. However, pockets of resilience—especially in logistics-heavy markets—suggest a potential rebound if tariff uncertainties resolve. Here's a breakdown of the highlights, tailored for investors, brokers, and industry watchers.

Overall Market Trends

• Demand Slowdown: U.S. net absorption totaled 112.5 million square feet (SF) in 2025, a 13% drop year-over-year and a staggering 78% decline from the 2021 record of 519 million SF. Over the last three years, annual absorption averaged 137.9 million SF, down from 388 million SF between 2020-2022. In Canada, overall absorption was negative, pushing the vacancy rate to its highest since 2017.
• Supply Moderation: New deliveries reached 253.6 million SF in the U.S., down 52% from 2023's peak. This brings completions back to pre-COVID levels (averaging 211 million SF annually from 2015-2019). Canada saw similar trends, with rent growth slowing to under 2%.
• Rent and Pricing Pressures: U.S. rent growth hit just 1.3%—the lowest since 2011—compared to over 10% in 2022. Warehouse-distribution spaces (68% of the 19.6 billion SF market) saw demand fall 16% from 2024. Uncertainty around tariffs has led to inventory volatility, delaying expansions, though onshoring could boost manufacturing space needs if clarity emerges from upcoming Supreme Court rulings.
• Vacancy and Cap Rates: U.S. vacancy averaged 7.6%, while Canada's was tighter at 4.8%. Cap rates stood at 7.3% in the U.S. and 5.6% in Canada, reflecting varied investor sentiment.

Key risks include oversupply in Sunbelt and Midwest markets like Austin, Indianapolis, Phoenix, and San Antonio, where big-box completions may take years to absorb. On the bright side, top absorption markets included Dallas/Fort Worth (26 million SF), Phoenix, Columbus (OH), Houston, and Indianapolis.

Standout Market Metrics

Here's a snapshot of top performers across key categories (based on CoStar-defined territories; note: Canadian figures in CAD):

Spotlight on Select Markets

The report dives into specific regions, showing varied performance:

• Calgary, AB (Canada): Ended strong with vacancy dropping to 3.14% (from 4.04% in Q3) and Q4 absorption surging to 2.73 million SF. Construction is ramping up (3.77 million SF underway), with big-box leasing driving activity. Sales averaged $192.88/SF, up from prior quarters. Top deals included a 331K SF sale to Minhas Furniture for $41.5M CAD and a 252K SF lease to Modine of Canada.
• Phoenix, AZ (U.S.): Transitioning from rapid growth, with Q4 absorption at 3.44 million SF and vacancy steady at 13.7%. Over 23.5 million SF under construction signals optimism, but tenant selectivity is rising. Rents averaged $13.32/SF NNN, with sales at $201.43/SF. Notable transactions: Walmart's 1.28M SF purchase for $152M and Amazon's 1.06M SF lease.

For Southern California markets like Los Angeles (where vacancy is 6.4%, rents $17.67/SF, and sales $323/SF), the report notes balanced conditions amid broader tariff impacts—ideal for logistics firms eyeing West Coast hubs.

Looking Ahead to 2026

While 2025 was a cooling period, the industrial sector's fundamentals remain solid, especially for e-commerce and supply chain players. Tariff resolutions could spark onshoring, boosting manufacturing demand. Investors should watch oversupplied markets for opportunities as absorption catches up. For the full report contact me directly.

If you're navigating industrial deals in Long Beach or beyond, feel free to reach out, let's discuss how these trends impact your strategy!

As we wrap up 2025, the U.S. and global economies continue to navigate a complex landscape shaped by trade policies, immigration shifts, and geopolitical tensions. In our latest Q4 Economic Report, we dive into the trends defining GDP growth, employment, monetary policy, and the broader global picture. Here's a concise summary of the highlights—perfect for staying informed on how these factors could impact commercial real estate and business decisions.

GDP Growth: A Robust Finish Despite Challenges

The U.S. economy showed remarkable strength in Q4 2025, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projecting a 5.4% growth rate—the highest since early 2018. This surge was driven by strong consumer spending, a narrowing trade deficit (down 39% to $29.4 billion in October, the lowest since 2009), and positive revisions in personal consumption expenditures (up to 3% in November). Business spending also held steady, with non-defense capital goods orders rising 0.7%.

Productivity jumped 4.9% in Q3, outpacing wage growth and keeping inflation in check. However, analysts note that much of this growth stems from reduced imports rather than pure domestic expansion. Looking ahead, Deloitte warns that tariffs could push core inflation to 3% in 2026, lingering above the Fed's 2% target until 2028 as costs gradually pass to consumers.

Employment: Cooling but Stable Amid Policy Shifts

Hiring slowed significantly in 2025, with only 584,000 jobs added for the year—down from over 2 million annually in prior years. December saw just 50,000 new positions, and revisions lowered October and November figures to 173,000 and 56,000, respectively. The monthly average of 49,000 jobs was the lowest since 2003 (excluding recession years).

Key factors include deportations and immigration enforcement, reducing net immigration from 2.27 million in 2024 to 410,000 in 2025, which reduced the worker supply. This kept the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. Sectors like health care (713,000 jobs added, averaging 34,000 monthly) and leisure/hospitality (188,000 jobs) led growth, while manufacturing, retail (down 25,000 in December), and warehousing declined.

Fitch Ratings' Olu Sonola cautions that cyclical sectors aren't signaling comfort, and younger workers face higher unemployment due to AI competition and hiring caution tied to tariff uncertainties.

Monetary Policy: A New Era on the Horizon

The Federal Reserve faces a leadership shakeup as President Trump nominates Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. Warsh, a former Fed governor and inflation hawk, is praised for pragmatism but criticized for past attacks on the Fed. Market reactions are mixed; supporters like Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney call it a "fantastic choice," while others worry about internal tensions.

This comes amid a Supreme Court ruling on presidential removal of Fed governors (e.g., Lisa Cook's case), testing the bank's independence. Warsh's appointment signals potential shifts in asset holdings, policy frameworks, and executive relations—echoing Paul Volcker's inflation-fighting era.

Global Economy: Resilient but Cautious Growth

The IMF projects global growth at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, slightly up from 2025 estimates, thanks to easing trade tensions. U.S. growth accelerated to 4.3% in Q3, boosted by tech investments, while China slowed to 2.4% due to weak housing but strong exports. Europe varied: France grew 2.2% on aerospace, Germany stagnated, and Japan contracted 2.3%.

Trade volume is expected to dip to 2.6% in 2026 before rebounding, with policy uncertainty lower but still elevated. Oil prices may fall 7% due to oversupply, and bilateral deals add complexity. Overall, the world economy remains adaptable, with tech-driven exports providing a buffer.In summary, Q4 2025 paints a picture of U.S. resilience amid policy headwinds, with global stability hinging on trade resolutions. For commercial real estate stakeholders, these trends underscore opportunities in health care and tech sectors, while cautioning on inflation and labor shortages.

If you'd like a full copy of the Q4 2025 Economic Report, feel free to contact me directly at Lee & Associates.

Ron Mgrublian, Lee & Associates Commercial Real Estate Services

As we wrap up 2025, the San Gabriel Valley (SGV) industrial submarket is demonstrating clear momentum toward recovery after a couple of challenging years marked by rising vacancies and negative absorption. Here at Lee & Associates, we're excited to share the latest insights from our Q4 report, highlighting positive shifts that could signal stronger days ahead for tenants, landlords, and investors alike.

This overview paints an optimistic picture: vacancy rates have dipped to 5.2% from 6.2% at the end of 2024, bolstered by over 2 million square feet of positive net absorption throughout the year. Leasing activity has remained robust, with more than 9.7 million square feet transacted across 638 deals—indicating that tenants are confidently re-entering the market even as availability sits at 6.8%. Construction activity is modest at just 529,985 square feet under way, with new deliveries slowing down significantly. Meanwhile, direct average triple-net rents have moderated to $15.48 per square foot, creating a more competitive and balanced environment for all parties.

Key Market Indicators

To give you a snapshot of the quarter-by-quarter trends, here's a breakdown of the core metrics for 2025 compared to Q4 2024:

These figures underscore the submarket's stabilization. While Q4 saw a slight dip in net absorption, the full-year positive trend is a welcome reversal from 2024's challenges. Rents have adjusted downward, which may attract more cost-conscious tenants, and cap rates are holding steady around 5%, reflecting investor confidence.

Net Absorption, Deliveries, and Vacancy Trends

The SGV's recovery is perhaps best illustrated by its absorption and vacancy patterns. After negative absorption in recent years, 2025 brought a surge of positive activity, reducing vacancy by a full percentage point. Limited new deliveries have helped keep supply in check, preventing further upward pressure on vacancy rates. If this trajectory continues, we could see even tighter conditions in 2026, potentially driving rents back up.Construction remains subdued, with only about 530,000 square feet in the pipeline—a far cry from the more aggressive development seen in prior cycles. This cautious approach from developers is likely a response to economic uncertainties, but it positions the market well for organic demand growth.

Notable Sale Transactions

Investment activity picked up steam in Q4, with several high-profile deals showcasing strong interest in Class A and B properties. Here's a look at the top sales by square footage:

*Part of a portfolio sale.These transactions highlight the appeal of well-located industrial assets in Industry and surrounding areas, with prices per square foot climbing north of $240 in some cases.

Top Lease Transactions

Leasing was equally dynamic, with eCommerce, advertising, and freight sectors leading the charge. Key deals included:

These leases reflect diverse industry demand, from online retail to logistics, and underscore SGV's strategic position in Southern California's supply chain ecosystem.

Looking Ahead

As we head into 2026, the San Gabriel Valley industrial market appears poised for continued improvement. With vacancy trending downward and leasing activity holding strong, opportunities abound for businesses seeking space in this vital region. If you're navigating the market—whether as a tenant, owner, or investor—Lee & Associates is here to provide expert guidance tailored to your needs.

For more details or to discuss how these trends impact your real estate strategy, feel free to reach out to me, Ron Mgrublian, at Lee & Associates.

To receive the full Q4 2025 San Gabriel Valley Industrial Market Report (including detailed charts, net absorption trends, and additional insights), contact me directly.

Positive Tenant Demand Ends 11-Quarter Contraction 

Orange County’s industrial market showed clear signs of stabilization in the fourth quarter of 2025, posting its first positive net absorption in nearly three years and officially ending the county’s longest contraction on record. 

Key Highlights – Q4 2025 

• Net Absorption: +316,406 SF (first positive quarter since Q4 2022)
• Full-Year Net Absorption: –1.8 million SF
• Vacancy Rate: 6.30% (up from 5.20% one year ago, but still below the national average of 7.6%)
• Average NNN Asking Rate: $18.36 PSF
• Average Sale Price: $318 PSF
• Cap Rate: 5.88%
• Space Under Construction: 1.59 million SF
• Total Inventory: 304.2 million SF

After 11 consecutive quarters of negative absorption totaling 9.3 million SF (3.4% of total inventory), positive tenant demand finally returned in Q4. While vacancy has risen from a record-low 1.8% to 6.3%, Orange County remains one of the nation’s strongest and most sought-after industrial markets thanks to its proximity to the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach and dense Southern California consumer base.

 Market Indicators Trend (2025) 

 Notable Transactions Q4 2025

Top Sales 

• 2164 N. Batavia Street, Orange – 249,431 SF sold for $69.6M ($279 PSF) – Class A
• 17352 Armstrong Avenue, Irvine – 123,748 SF sold for $17M ($137 PSF) – Class C
• 2601 S. Garnsey Street, Santa Ana – 122,407 SF sold for $31.8M ($260 PSF) – Class C

 Top Leases 

• 2164 N. Batavia Street, Orange – 246,732 SF to Paper Mart (Packaging Wholesale)
• 17352 Armstrong Avenue, Irvine – 123,748 SF to Fletcher Jones (Retailer)
• 15345 Barranca Parkway, Irvine – 84,580 SF to Undisclosed Tenant

 What It Means for Occupiers & Investors 

• Occupiers: Rental rates have moderated slightly, giving tenants more negotiating power than they had in 2021–2023. Availability is up, especially in Class B and C product.
• Investors: Sale prices are down and cap rates have expanded ~150 bps year-over-year, creating more attractive entry points in a market that historically delivers strong long-term performance.
• Developers: The pipeline has shrunk 22% from Q3, signaling that new supply is finally tapering as demand stabilizes.

 Outlook 

The return to positive absorption in Q4 2025 is a major inflection point. While full recovery will take several quarters, Orange County’s strategic location, limited new supply, and enduring tenant demand position the market for gradual improvement through 2026.

For the full Q4 2025 Orange County Industrial Market Report contact me directly.

As we wrap up 2025 and look ahead to 2026, the Southern California industrial market continues to demonstrate resilience amid evolving economic conditions. At Lee & Associates, we're excited to share our latest quarterly report, which dives deep into macroeconomic drivers, port activity, and submarket fundamentals across South Bay, Midcounties, Central LA, and the Inland Empire. This blog post provides a high-level summary of the key findings—think of it as your quick guide to the trends shaping industrial real estate in SoCal. For the full details, including charts, data tables, and in-depth analysis, reach out to me directly. I'd be happy to send you the complete PDF report.

Macroeconomic Drivers Fueling Industrial Demand

The U.S. economy showed strength in 2025, with real GDP accelerating to a 4.3% annual rate in Q3—the fastest in two years—driven by consumer spending, exports, and government outlays. Employment growth slowed, adding just 50,000 jobs in December, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4.4%. Retail and e-commerce sales remained robust, with total retail up 3.3% year-over-year in November and e-commerce growing 5.1%, accounting for 16.4% of retail activity.Key warehouse occupiers in Q4 included:

• Third-Party Logistics (3PL) Providers: Dominating 35% of leasing, as retailers outsource for flexibility amid trade risks.
• Advanced Manufacturing: Boosted by nearshoring in semiconductors and EVs.
• E-commerce & Omnichannel Retailers: Shifting to smaller urban warehouses for faster deliveries.
• Tech Companies: Leasing big for AI-driven data centers.
• Automotive, Construction, and Food & Beverage: Showing renewed activity with improving housing starts and modern facilities.

Looking to 2026, GDP is projected to grow 2.7%, supported by fiscal stimulus and easing rates, though inflation lingers above 2% and trade policies remain uncertain.

LA & Long Beach Ports: Still the Nation's Trade Powerhouses

SoCal ports handled elevated container volumes in 2025, with LA and Long Beach leading despite year-over-year declines in Q4. LA's total TEUs dropped 14.11% quarterly, while Long Beach saw an 8.82% dip. Inbound loads remained strong, but empties and exports contributed to the slowdown. West Coast gateways continue to anchor U.S. throughput, driving industrial demand in nearby submarkets.

Submarket Spotlights: Trends, KPIs, and Deals

South Bay: Gateway Stability with Modest Easing

Vacancy ticked up to 6.1% (from 6.0% in Q3), with positive net absorption of 90,662 SF offsetting 60,558 SF in deliveries. Under construction: 324,921 SF. Asking rents stabilized at $1.52 NNN, up quarterly but down annually. Sales volume surged to $370.5M, driven by institutional deals.

Top Leases:

• Vie Logistics: 389,097 SF in Rancho Dominguez (Third-Party Logistics)
• Morrison Express: 219,575 SF in Compton (Freight Forwarding)

Top Sales:

• Clarion Partners: 1,008,837 SF portfolio in Compton/LA for $412M
• Morgan Stanley: 143,060 SF in LA for $211.4M

Trends: Availability rose to 6.1%, signaling a balanced market; investment focused on quality assets.

Midcounties: Tight Corridor Loosening Slightly

Vacancy rose to 6.8% (from 6.3%), with 191,874 SF net absorption and 493,874 SF delivered. Under construction: 28,320 SF. Rents held at $1.33 NNN, up quarterly but 11% below last year. Sales cooled to $81M across eight deals.

Top Leases:

• FedEx: 516,124 SF in Downey (Parcel Delivery)
• Peak Logistics: 117,774 SF in Santa Fe Springs (Third-Party Logistics)

Top Sales:

• 3 Industrial: 303,754 SF portfolio in La Mirada for $55M
• World Trade Printing: 89,873 SF in La Mirada for $23.4M

Trends: Direct space drove vacancy uptick; investors remain selective with cap rates at 4.7%.

Central LA: Dense Corridor Showing Signs of Balance

Vacancy dipped to 5.6% (from 6.0%), thanks to strong 1,287,891 SF net absorption and no new deliveries. Under construction: 486,333 SF. Rents softened to $1.40 NNN, flat year-over-year. Sales volume rose on larger deals, with cap rates compressing to 5.4%.

Top Leases:

• Amazon: 615,000 SF in Commerce (E-Commerce)
• Sport Dimension: 132,642 SF in South Gate (Sporting Goods)

Top Sales:

• Hines REIT: 717,065 SF in LA for $287M
• Atlas Capital: 648,000 SF in LA for $241.5M

Trends: Absorption stabilized vacancy; market bifurcated toward infill quality.

Inland Empire: Big-Box Hub Normalizing

Vacancy climbed to 8.1% (from 7.6%), but net absorption rebounded to 2,186,058 SF amid 1,065,546 SF deliveries. Under construction: 6,791,711 SF—the highest pipeline. Rents stabilized at $0.99 NNN, down annually. Sales moderated to lower volumes and $208/SF pricing.

Top Leases:

• Hankook Tire: 754,392 SF in Fontana (Automotive)
• RJW Logistics: 656,695 SF in Perris (Third-Party Logistics)

Top Sales:

• Rexford Industrial: 1,101,400 SF in Fontana for $365M (Sale-Leaseback)
• Costco: 1,613,290 SF in Ontario for $345M (Owner-User)

Trends: Supply growth outpaced demand, but positive absorption signals steady logistics interest.

Final Thoughts and Next Steps

Overall, the SoCal industrial market in Q4 2025 reflected a transition toward balance: softening rents, rising vacancies in some areas, but resilient demand from logistics, e-commerce, and manufacturing. Ports remain a key driver, and with 2026's projected growth, opportunities abound for savvy investors and occupiers.

This is just a teaser— the full report includes detailed charts on rent trends, port volumes, and more. If you'd like the complete PDF or have questions about how these insights apply to your industrial needs in Long Beach or beyond, don't hesitate to reach out. Contact me, Ron Mgrublian, at Lee & Associates: rmgrublian@lee-associates.com. Let's connect and discuss your next move!

In the ever-evolving world of commercial real estate, the landscape for industrial site selection has undergone a seismic shift. According to a recent report from Lee & Associates, titled Power, People, Policy: The New Drivers of Industrial Site Selection, strategic incentives are no longer just perks—they're the core architecture behind major expansion and relocation decisions. Amid tariff uncertainties, high interest rates, and cautious tenant growth, companies are leaning heavily on tax abatements, infrastructure grants, workforce programs, and federal initiatives to make projects viable. Let's break down the key insights from this thought leadership piece.

The Evolving Incentives Ecosystem

The report highlights a "layered capital ecosystem" that's fueling massive industrial projects across North America. Federal programs are at the forefront:

• CHIPS Act: This has been a game-changer for domestic semiconductor manufacturing, drawing giants like NVIDIA and TSMC back to the U.S. with their supply chains in tow.
• Inflation Reduction Act: It's pouring billions into clean energy, battery production, hydrogen, grid upgrades, and advanced manufacturing.
• One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA): By making the New Markets Tax Credit permanent and boosting Opportunity Zones, it's targeting rural and underserved areas for economic revival.

States and localities are matching this federal momentum with site readiness funds, infrastructure upgrades, and tailored workforce training. Even landlords are getting in on the action, offering free rent periods to offset rising vacancies and occupancy costs. The result? A competitive frenzy that's accelerating industrial growth in tech-heavy sectors like data centers and semiconductors.

Core Drivers: Power, People, and Policy

Site selection now starts with incentives, with three pillars standing out:

• Power Availability: Mega data centers need 400-500 megawatts of reliable, scalable energy. States like Arizona and Texas lead here, offering packages that prioritize infrastructure over pure cost savings.
• Tax Incentives: Sales tax exemptions on equipment can save data center projects $100-200 million upfront, while property tax abatements sweeten the deal further.
• Workforce Considerations: Skilled labor is non-negotiable, with wages benchmarked at $20-25 per hour (thanks to anchors like Amazon and Walmart). Proximity to educational institutions and customized training programs give states like Georgia and Tennessee an edge, creating economic zones around big players like Hyundai and Samsung.

These factors aren't just checkboxes—they're decisive in outbidding competitors.

States Stepping Up Their Game

Competition is heating up regionally:

• East Coast and Midwest: Pennsylvania's Site Readiness Fund preps parcels for quick development. Ohio snagged SEMCORP's $916 million lithium-ion plant with $186 million in incentives, including grants and tax breaks. Indiana is rethinking its scaled-back approach to stay competitive.
• Southern States: Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee excel with "plug-and-play" sites—pre-approved land, guaranteed utilities, and fast permitting.

The report contrasts successes with pitfalls: New Jersey's aggressive incentives under Governor Christie revitalized urban areas, but tighter reforms under Governor Murphy stalled momentum, underscoring the need for balanced policies.

Winning Strategies and Cautionary Tales

Real-world examples illustrate what works:

• Arkansas and Trex: By providing 200 acres of free, prepared land worth $20 million, Arkansas overcame site challenges and clinched a major project with a total $69 million package.
• Oklahoma and Emirates Global Aluminium: A unified push secured a $4 billion aluminum smelter—the first new U.S. primary facility in 45 years—with $700 million in incentives, beating out Mississippi and Texas.
• Ohio and SEMCORP: Workforce analysis and $186 million in tailored incentives anchored this supply-chain win.

On the flip side, avoid missteps like premature announcements (which can kill negotiating leverage) or late consultant involvement. Early "desktop analyses" can evaluate options across locations, as seen with Ollie's Bargain Outlet securing $18.5 million for its Illinois distribution center.

Looking Ahead: Metrics for 2026 and Beyond

As we head into 2026, the report urges tracking key indicators:

• Economic resilience (unemployment, consumer confidence, productivity).
• Labor dynamics (skilled worker availability, wage growth).
• Trade policies and infrastructure (especially power for energy-intensive ops).
• Emerging tech like nuclear (e.g., Kairos Power's modular reactors), hydrogen, fusion, and advanced solar.

Federal defense and reshoring initiatives will align with state incentives, creating prime opportunities for aligned companies.

Final Thoughts: Incentives as a Strategic Compass

Lee & Associates positions incentives as the new north star for U.S. industrial growth. By engaging early, fostering transparency, and building partnerships, brokers and advisors can navigate this complexity. As policies evolve, those who interpret and leverage them will drive the next wave of American manufacturing and distribution.This summary draws from Lee & Associates' expert insights, contributed by North American Director of Incentives & Credits, Mike Mikulski. For the full report, check out their thought leadership series—it's a must-read for anyone in commercial real estate eyeing expansion in this incentive-driven era.

Want the full report? 

Contact:

Ron Mgrublian

Lee & Associates 

(For a complimentary copy of Power, People, Policy: The New Drivers of Industrial Site Selection)

The game has changed. The winners will be the ones who treat incentives as strategy — not just savings.

As we close out the third quarter of 2025, one phrase from the Federal Reserve keeps ringing in our ears:

“You can’t have negative job growth and 4% GDP growth. Something’s got to give.”– Fed Governor Christopher Waller

That single sentence perfectly captures the strange split-screen economy we’re living through right now.

The Good News: The Economy Refuses to Slow Down (Yet)

• The Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDPNow model is currently tracking +3.9% annualized growth for Q3 — that would be one of the strongest quarters in years.
• Consumers are still spending freely: August retail sales beat forecasts for the third month in a row, with big gains in travel, hotels, and restaurants.
• Q2 GDP was just revised higher to +3.8%, the fastest pace in nearly two years.

If you only looked at spending and output, you’d think we’re in the middle of a boom.

The Worrying News: The Job Market Is Flashing Red

• Only ~22,000 jobs were added in August (the last official report before the government shutdown).
• Private payrolls actually shrank by 32,000 in September (ADP data).
• Announced layoffs in 2025 are running at the highest level since the 2020 lockdowns — over 120,000 cuts from companies including Amazon, UPS, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Google, and many others. A recurring theme? AI-driven efficiencies.
• Unemployment is holding at 4.3% only because far fewer jobs are needed each month to keep it steady (Deutsche Bank estimates ~50k vs. 130k a year ago) thanks to retiring boomers, lower immigration, and rising deportations.

The Fed Is Stuck in the Middle

In late October the Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00%, but Chair Powell made it clear: another cut in December is not a done deal. 

Two Fed governors actually dissented in opposite directions — one wanted a 50 bps cut, the other wanted zero. That’s stagflation-level disagreement.

Powell is now openly talking about AI layoffs: “You see a significant number of companies… talking about AI and what it can do. We’re watching that very, very carefully.”

Around the World: Uncertainty Is the Only Certainty

• IMF global growth forecast: slowing to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
• World trade growth is expected to drop sharply as lingering tariffs, immigration restrictions, and fiscal stimulus create cross-currents.
• A small bright spot: China and the U.S. hit pause on the rare-earths fight after Xi announced a one-year delay on tighter export controls.

What This Means for Commercial Real Estate

Occupiers and investors hate uncertainty — and right now we have plenty:

• Tariffs still rolling out
• Government shutdown dragging on
• AI reshaping headcount faster than most expected
• Fed policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis

Until either (a) the labor market stabilizes or (b) GDP finally slows to meet it, many tenants will stay cautious on expansion plans and investors will demand extra risk premium.

We’re not calling for a recession tomorrow, but the gap between a roaring consumer and a cooling job market can’t widen forever.

Something’s got to give.We’ll keep watching the data (official and private) and bring you updates as soon as the government reopens and the picture clears.

In the meantime, stay nimble.

~ Lee & Associates Research Team 

LEE-ASSOCIATES.COM/RESEARCH

Lee & Associates is proud to announce the successful sale of 1491 E Mission Blvd, Pomona, CA 91766 — a highly versatile ±38,833 SF industrial parcel ideal for owner-users.

Key Features:

• Expansive secured yard
• Office/residence on-site
• Excellent access to 60, 71 & 10 Freeways

Buyer Represented By:

Ron Mgrublian, MBA

Principal | DRE #01902882 

📞 562.354.2537 

✉️ rmgrublian@leelalb.com

Lee & Associates Los Angeles - Long Beach, Inc.

5000 E Spring St, Suite 600, Long Beach, CA 90815 

Proven Results. Trusted Representation.

Contact us to maximize your property’s value.

The industrial real estate sector is shifting from large-scale warehouses to small-bay industrial properties (2,000–10,000 sq ft), which are emerging as a resilient, high-performing asset class driven by structural demand and favorable fundamentals.

Key Market Fundamentals

• Vacancy: Small-bay vacancy at 4.2% vs. 7.4% for large-scale industrial.
• Rent Growth: Small-bay rents up >40% since 2020, far outpacing broader industrial growth.
• Tenant Stability: Shorter leases, high retention, and "sticky" tenants who expand/contract within parks.
• Operational Advantages: Lower maintenance, scalable portfolios, and diversification reduce risk.

Demand Drivers

• Reshoring & Local Logistics: Proximity to customers supports service trades, contractors, and regional distributors.
• Small Businesses: Over 36 million U.S. small businesses (nearly 50% of private-sector jobs) fuel consistent demand.
• Last-Mile & Urban Infill: Rising fulfillment costs push tenants toward efficient, right-sized spaces.

Hotspot Markets (U.S. & Canada)

Investment Momentum

• Q2 2025 Sales: Properties <150K sq ft = 62% of industrial transaction volume ($5.89B in $5–25M range).
• Pricing: Small-bay sale prices up 55% since Q3 2020 (avg. $104/psf in Eastern PA/NJ).
• Investor Profile: Strong local/regional buyer activity; off-market deals dominate to avoid bidding wars.
• Institutional Interest: Growing but still a local landlord’s game.

Strategic Outlook

• Scarcity is Structural: Zoning, land constraints, and high construction costs limit new supply.
• Risk Mitigation: Diversified tenant base and short leases hedge against volatility.
• Caution: Rising rents causing tenant pushback in overheated markets — credit diligence critical.

Conclusion

Small-bay industrial is no longer a niche — it’s the connective tissue of modern industrial real estate. With systemic supply constraints, secular demand trends, and superior risk-adjusted returns, it offers investors agility, durability, and alpha in an evolving cycle.

“The next decade won’t be about size. It will be about agility, adaptability, and execution.”