Blog #long beach

A prevalent and unifying trend has emerged in the industrial markets of Greater Los Angeles & Long Beach, Orange County, and the Inland Empire during the third quarter of 2023: an uptick in vacancy rates. This development has undoubtedly captured the attention of real estate observers, raising questions about the resilience of these markets amidst evolving economic conditions.

While it's true that asking lease rates and sale prices have moderated from their previous peaks, they continue to hover at historically elevated levels. This is particularly noteworthy in the realm of leasing, where the prevailing rates are higher than what has been observed in the past. The apparent contrast between increased vacancies and persistent high asking rates creates an intriguing narrative within these markets.

The question that naturally arises is whether this shift in vacancy rates is a direct consequence of the recent Federal Reserve interest rate hikes or if it's a temporary slowdown in the market's momentum. The answer to this query remains somewhat elusive, and much like the economic outlook itself, it is subject to ongoing observation and analysis.

One plausible hypothesis is that the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes has yet to fully materialize. These hikes may have prompted businesses and investors to reevaluate their strategies, potentially leading to a pause in leasing and purchasing activities. The full ramifications of such monetary policy decisions often take time to ripple through the real estate sector.

On the other hand, it is equally plausible that the observed increase in vacancy rates is a transient phenomenon. Industrial markets are influenced by a myriad of factors, including supply and demand dynamics, economic cycles, and regional conditions. Short-term fluctuations are not uncommon, and they may not necessarily indicate a fundamental shift in the health of these markets.

As we move forward, close monitoring and analysis of these markets will be essential to provide a more definitive answer. Factors such as employment trends, trade activity, and consumer behavior will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of these industrial markets. Whether the current situation is a harbinger of sustained change or a brief pause in the continued growth of these markets will be revealed in the coming quarters, offering valuable insights into the ever-evolving real estate landscape.

Listed for Sale by Ron Mgrublian and Jeff Coburn, the ±10,208 SF Long Beach Warehouse property recently sold. 

The Long Beach Industrial Submarket vacancy rates remain 41% below those of the Los Angeles Industrial Market, CoStar has the average Long Beach Market Sale Price at $367 PSF.

Ron Mgrublian is a Commercial Real Estate Broker focusing on Industrial Real Estate and Warehouse Properties with the Lee & Associates Los Angeles – Long Beach, Southern California office.

Every key metric typically used to measure the health of the economy is performing well right now. GDP grew by 2.0% in Q1, and it is estimated to grow by 2.3% in Q2 by the Atlanta Fed . In terms of employment, over the last year the U.S. added 3.8 million jobs and now has an unemployment rate of 3.6%. With regard to inflation, both headline and core inflation are
trending downward. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-over-year in June and 0.2% for the month, below consensus estimates of 3.1% and 0.3%. This was the lowest rate of inflation since March 2021. And core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 4.8% year-over-year and 0.2% for the month. The annual core inflation level was
the lowest since October 2021, and its monthly gain was the smallest gain since August 2021.

Most economists, forecasters, and business leaders are anticipating that the Fed will continue to raise rates throughout the year until it reaches its target inflation rate. For this reason, most forecasters still believe a mild and shallow recession is likely within the next twelve months. However, a significant minority are anticipating that the US economy will avoid a recession altogether. For example, in its latest forecast, the National Association of Realtors has the economy growing slowly every quarter throughout 2023 and projects the economy to grow by 1.1% for the whole year. 

Regardless of one’s stance on this issue, it is indisputable that the industrial market is in a favorable position to weather most headwinds the economy might face. Total retail sales grew by 1.6% in May 2023 compared to the same period a year ago , and as a percentage of total sales, e-commerce retail sales (one of the key drivers of the industrial sector) now stand at 15.1% – 3.9 percentage points higher than where it stood at its peak prior to the pandemic in Q4 of 2019. With this said, available space continues to increase and there has been a growing sentiment regarding a shift in negotiating power from Landlords to Tenants

• Former Food Facility

• Warehouse Floor Drains

• One (1) Ground Level Doors

• Fenced / Paved Yard

• Licensed Cannabis Use Possible at Higher Lease Rate

• Close Proximity to Freeways and Ports

For the first time in a long time a change in the market materialized in the 1^st quarter of 2023 in the Los Angeles – Long Beach Industrial Real Estate Market.  It appears that lease rates may have hit their ceiling for now.  The level of leasing activity in Q1 of 2023 dipped to levels not seen since 2006.  Despite the drop in activity demand for Industrial space remains at top levels and a struggle between historically high rates and the need for space is likely to play out over the next 18 or so months.

• Vacant and Ready For Occupancy

• Former Food Facility• Warehouse Floor Drains

• One (1) Ground Level Doors• Fenced / Paved Yard

• Licensed Cannabis Use Possible at Higher Lease Rate

• Close Proximity to Freeways and Ports

Commercial building tilt-up walls are a type of construction technique commonly used in the construction of large, commercial and industrial buildings. In this technique, the walls of the building are constructed on site, but instead of being built up from the ground, they are built flat on the ground and then tilted up into position.

The walls are typically made of reinforced concrete and are cast in large panels that are then lifted into place using cranes. This process can be completed relatively quickly and efficiently, and is often preferred for large commercial and industrial buildings because it allows for the construction of large, open spaces without the need for traditional load-bearing walls.

One of the primary benefits of tilt-up construction is speed. Because the walls are prefabricated offsite and then simply tilted into place, the overall construction process can be completed much faster than traditional construction methods. Additionally, because the walls are made of reinforced concrete, they are very strong and durable, making them an ideal choice for buildings that need to withstand harsh weather conditions or other extreme environments.

Another benefit of tilt-up construction is cost. Because the walls are constructed offsite and then lifted into place, there is less need for expensive equipment and materials on site, which can help to reduce overall construction costs.

Finally, tilt-up construction can also be an aesthetically pleasing option for commercial and industrial buildings. The panels can be designed to include a variety of architectural details, textures, and colors, giving the building a unique and visually appealing look.

Overall, tilt-up construction is a popular choice for commercial and industrial buildings because it is efficient, cost-effective, and durable.

The Los Angeles industrial real estate market is one of the most active and sought after in the United States. It is a diverse market, ranging from smaller facilities to large, modern distribution centers. The demand for industrial space in Los Angeles has remained strong due to the city's strategic location, growing population, and thriving economy. The Los Angeles industrial real estate market has also benefited from the rise of e-commerce, as online shopping has led to an increased demand for warehouse and distribution facilities. While the COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on many industries, the industrial sector has remained resilient, with strong leasing activity and a stable vacancy rate. Overall, the Los Angeles industrial real estate market presents many opportunities for investors, developers, and tenants alike. 

The Los Angeles industrial real estate market in the fourth quarter of 2022 was strong, with robust demand and limited supply leading to higher rental rates and lower vacancies. The e-commerce sector continued to drive demand for warehouse and distribution space. Overall, the market was characterized by a favorable balance between supply and demand, with positive outlook for the future.

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Q3 2022 saw the economy start to slow but Industrial Real Estate remain tight.

±10,208 SF Industrial Warehouse Building

Dock Well Possible

High End Image Building

Easy Access to 405 Freeway

Top Industrial Park in Long Beach

Low vacancy and high demand continued to drive higher sales prices and lease rates.